Are we heading for a double-dip?

Every single market movement and utterance from an economic sage is being met with speculation about the dreaded double-dip.

IFAonline reviews the events of the past few weeks and gives you the top comments from business leaders and economists from around the world to help you decide what happens next.

Just a single

Figures released by the CBI have shown demand for goods exported from the UK is continuing to rise, with order books considerably strengthened. The recovery is still ongoing in the manufacturing industry, at least.

In spite of dire warnings consistently emanating from Fleet Street, the New York Times featured an article titled: Economy in Britain Shows Signs of Strength. Positive signs cited are found in recent figures for improvements in retail sales and the news the Government's net borrowing has fallen over the past year.

Peter Toogood, director of investment services at OBSR, is equally confident about the economic recovery. He says: "Despite the rises in risks to growth in recent months, with increased financial market volatility and greater than forecast fiscal tightening, Asia and the US should provide sufficient support to generate at least trend global growth."

Caterpillar CEO Doug Oberhelman says he does not expect a double-dip. And anyway, even if the US does head back towards a recession, he insists his company will do what it did last time round and "come through it smelling like a rose".

Make it a double

Three consecutive days of Dow Jones gains were brought to a juddering halt last Thursday with the release of the latest unemployment figures in the US. The news there were 500,000 new claims for unemployment benefit filed in the week ending 14 August was not welcome. The index headed downward and global markets duly followed.

Sir Alan Budd continues to grab the headlines since leaving his post as chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility. Although he stressed it was only a possibility, the economist suggested in an interview with Radio 4's Today programme that a double-dip "is a possibility" in the UK.

A poll by YouGov found 55% of UK adults believe there may be another economic slump in the next year, although only 14% think this is very likely. Tellingly, only 4% are confident the country will not enter recession again.

Former Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg told CNBC: "The risks of a double-dip recession - if we ever got out of the first one - are actually a lot higher than people are talking about right now. I think that it is almost a foregone conclusion, a virtual certainty."