Gross lending data falls short of estimates

Gross mortgage lending in the UK is on course for its lowest annual finish since 2000 and will likely fall significantly below official estimates, Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) figures suggest.

According to CML data for April, lending in Q1 totaled just £32bn. At current or near to current rates, gross lending for 2009 will fail to match 2001's total of £160bn by a wide margin.

The last time gross lending was less than £120,000 in a calendar year was in 2000, when it reached £119bn. Lending in 2007 topped £363bn.

Despite this, the CML says its forecast for gross lending of £145bn in 2009 "remains unchanged".

In April, lending declined to an estimated £10.4bn, down 9% from £11.4bn in March and 60% from £26.1bn in April 2008.

The CML says the fall can be partially blamed on seasonality as Easter fell in April this year. Taken together, lending for March and April is down 57% on a year earlier.

"It's still too early to spot a clear pattern of recovery in the housing market as some commentators have suggested," CML director general Michael Coogan says.

"Activity remains weak, and we have said we will see volatility in monthly lending figures as we bounce along at the bottom of the market."

scott.sinclair@incisivemedia.com