Greetham gears up for positive decade for stocks

A decade of poor returns will be replaced with 10 years of strong performance in the stock markets, Fidelity International says.

The positive outlook continues the momentum of 2009 which saw stocks rally, according to Trevor Greetham, Fidelity's director of asset allocation and manager of the company's multi asset funds.

Citing the mean reversion theory - a phenomenon whereby a quantity returns to its average over a given time despite fluctuations - Greetham compares the last decade to similar periods of dislocation in stock markets, such as the Great Depression.

He argues governments' monetary policies helped make 2009 one of the best in the last century for stocks, building a springboard for 10 years of strong returns. 

"Risky assets of all types rallied strongly in response to aggressive monetary and fiscal ease," he says. "Stocks rose 36%, property 38% and commodities 19%, but all three are still well down on their early 2008 levels."

He points out, however, the huge disparity in stock performance last year, with emerging market equities rising 83% and Japan posting a disappointing 6% return in US dollar terms.